U.S. Stock Market Plummets!

The recent turmoil in the U.S.stock markets has painted a stark picture of volatility,characterized by the impact of unexpected economic data.The three major U.S.stock indices opened in the red and continued to decline throughout the trading day.Notably,the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted by more than 500 points,representing a drop exceeding 1%.In a similar vein,the Nasdaq Composite suffered an alarming 2.32% drop,equating to a loss of approximately 450 points,while the S&P 500 index fell by over 100 points,showing a decline of 1.70%.

Within the market,sectors associated with solid-state batteries experienced a notable increase,climbing over 4%.Conversely,concepts surrounding NFT and fingerprint technology also showed some resilience,gaining more than 2%.Meanwhile,the chip sector,significantly impacted by ongoing news regarding AI chip export restrictions in the U.S.,saw declines of over 6% in such companies as Nvidia.The ramifications of these emerging export controls have fueled uncertainty in technology stocks,which are crucial to the market's health.

As investors navigated this turmoil,the focus turned towards the so-called "Magnificent Seven" stocks,a group of tech giants that have traditionally bolstered the market's performance.Among these,Nvidia suffered a 3.27% decline,while Tesla dipped by 2.16%.Apple and Microsoft also faced drops of 2.57% and 2.01%,respectively.Amazon recorded a loss of 2.20%,Meta fell by 1.67%,and Alphabet—Google's parent company—saw a more modest decline of 1.28%.The overall sentiment in the tech sector remained cautious as investors grappled with the implications of shifting economic indicators.

Adding to market anxiety,the U.S.Department of Labor released its Non-Farm Payrolls report,revealing that the employment figure for December soared to an impressive 256,000 jobs,significantly outperforming the market's expectation of only 160,000.Furthermore,the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1%,marking a notable drop that caught analysts by surprise.

In another twist,data from the University of Michigan regarding consumer confidence fell short of expectations.The index came in at 73.2,below the anticipated 73.8 and previous measurement of 74.This decline indicates a dip in consumer sentiment which might pose challenges for future economic recovery.Additionally,long-term inflation expectations,assessed at 3.3%,reached their highest levels since 2008,further fueling market apprehension.

The robust Non-Farm Payroll data bolstered the U.S.dollar index,which momentarily touched the critical threshold of 110,with a peak at 109.9660 before retracting slightly.The dollar index ultimately showed an increase of 0.13%,closing at 109.3220—marking its highest point since November 2022.This strengthening of the dollar can influence global markets,affecting commodity prices,among other variables.

The unexpected strength of the Non-Farm Payroll report and the lower unemployment rate has provided the Federal Reserve with justifications to maintain its hawkish stance on interest rates.Analysts deduce that the Fed's concerns regarding the job market may be alleviating,allowing the institution to shift its focus back to controlling inflation.This perspective raises questions about future adjustments to the interest rate,potentially delaying cuts that many were anticipating.

Interestingly,the release of the Non-Farm data triggered immediate reactions in commodity markets.Gold prices initially dipped but then surged,leading to an overall increase of 0.89%,with prices reaching $2,693.780 per ounce.Silver also experienced growth,bouncing back with a 1.47% increase to $30.559 per ounce,showcasing a V-shaped recovery in response to market dynamics.

Traders quickly adjusted their expectations for the timing of the Fed's next rate cut,now seemingly pushed back to October.Federal Reserve member Goolsbee acknowledged the stabilization observed in the labor market through the employment report but emphasized the need to consider external factors,such as tariffs and international responses that potentially affect pricing.

Meanwhile,crude oil futures surged dramatically.The price of Brent crude surpassed the $80 per barrel mark at one point,reflecting a 3.67% increase,trading around $79.740 per barrel.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also experienced a notable rise of approximately 3.59%,peaking above $76 during the trading session before settling at $75.870.

U.S.Treasury yields followed suit as they climbed.The yield on one-year Treasury notes rose by 5.2 basis points,amounting to 4.215%.Meanwhile,the five-year notes increased by 8.7 basis points,reaching 4.536%,while the ten-year notes saw a rise of 5.8 basis points,settling at 4.739%.Additionally,the 20-year notes yielded a rise of 2.8 basis points to reach 5.006%,and the thirty-year notes rose by 1.8% to settle at 4.938%.

As Goolsbee noted,if economic conditions remain stable alongside no inflation increase while achieving full employment,then a decrease in interest rates would be appropriate.If expectations hold,significant interest rate cuts could be anticipated in the next 12 to 18 months.

The Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index,which tracks Chinese companies listed in the U.S.,opened lower,experiencing an immediate drop of 2.85%.The FTSE China Triple-Leverage ETF saw a staggering decline of 7.59%.Fortunately,the Chinese A-share market is scheduled for a break during the weekend,sparing investors from further short-term losses.

Conversely,popular Chinese concept stocks fell,with Alibaba dropping by 2.86%,JD.com by 4.85%,and Pinduoduo by 4.51%.Xiaopeng managed a slight gain,rising by 0.21%,while Nio dipped by 2.31%,and Li Auto fell 3.99%.Notably,NetEase declined by 0.85%,Vipshop by 0.88%,Tencent Music by 1.33%,and Zhihu dropped 2.66%.On the other hand,BeiGene witnessed a minor drop of 0.56%,while Ke Holdings’ decline registered 0.81%.

Prior to the Non-Farm Payroll release,the CME "FedWatch" tool indicated a 93.1% probability that the Federal Reserve would maintain interest rates steady in January,with just a 6.9% chance of a 25 basis point cut.As the market digested the newly released employment data,expectations regarding the Fed's future actions saw a marked shift.The labor statistics indicated a considerable resilience within the job market,which in turn diminished the probability of any near-term rate cuts,with predictions now showing a 2.7% chance of a reduction in January.

The market sentiment hints at an anticipated delay for future rate cuts,with the prevailing view being that an easing cycle may have concluded for now.Analysts from Citigroup revised their predictions,suggesting that the Federal Reserve may not consider a rate cut until May,up from their earlier estimates for January.In light of the current economic conditions,Bank of America suggested that any forthcoming actions would likely lean towards increasing rates rather than cutting,indicating a persistent cautious outlook.